DAVID WIEDEMER, PhD, is a world leader in macroevolutionary economic analysis. His work in information dynamics, technological evolution, and economic history forms the basis for the predictions in the Aftershock series of books. Dr. Wiedemer is the Chief Economist for Absolute Investment Management. He is also a Portfolio Manager for the Aftershock Strategies Mutual Fund (SHKNX). Dr. Wiedemer holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. ROBERT A. WIEDEMER is a Managing Director of Absolute Investment Management, a macro-focused money management firm that is in alignment with the macroeconomic analysis and perspective of Aftershock . He is also a Portfolio Manager for the Aftershock Strategies Mutual Fund (SHKNX). Mr. Wiedemer holds an MBA from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. CINDY S. SPITZER is an award-winning author who has collaborated on more than two dozen books, including Chicken Soup for the Soul , Buy and Hold is Dead (Again) , and America's Bubble Economy . Ms. Spitzer is President of Aftershock Consultants, a consulting firm that provides support and insights to hundreds of individuals, families, and businesses worldwide, based on the macroeconomic ideas in Aftershock .

Acknowledgments (David Wiedemer, Robert Wiedemer and Cindy Spitzer) Introduction Chapter 1: This "Recovery" is 100 Percent Fake Why the Aftershock Has Not Been Cancelled Isn't a Fake Recovery Better Than No Recovery at All? If the Aftershock Has Not Been Canceled, Why Hasn't It Happened Yet? Still Not Sure this Recovery is 100 Percent Fake? Don't Believe the Stimulus Has to Eventually End? There is a Limit to What the Government Can Do Wondering Why the Aftershock Hasn't Happen Already? "Animal Spirits" are Keeping Us Going The Fierce Fight to Save the Bubbles When Will it Happen? Please Prepare Now Part I: Aftershock Chapter 2: Bubblequake and Aftershock--A Quick Review of How We Got Here and What's Next Why Read This Book? Because We Were Right, Now You Can Be Right, Too Not Asleep with the Sheep Bubblequake! First a Rising Bubble Economy, Now a Falling Bubble Economy What Is a Bubble? How to Spot a Bubble America's Bubble Economy Future Inflation Will Cause Rising Interest Rates The Government Debt Bubble From Boom to Bust: The Virtuous Upward Spiral Becomes a Vicious Downward Spiral First the Bubblequake, Next the Aftershock It's Not Just America's Bubble Economy--The World Has a Bubble Economy, Too Why Don't We Have the Aftershock Right Now? Two Temporary "Airbags" Are Supporting the Other Partially Popped Bubbles Rising Future Inflation Is Key Why Don't Most Conventional Investors See This Coming? What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? Chapter 3: Aftershock Update: They Read Our Playbook, the World Is Printing Money Central Banks Gone Wild Economists Continue to Ignore the Risks of Money Printing Why Isn't Inflation Higher Now? Even Before We Get High Inflation, Other Potential Triggers Could Accelerate a Downtrend in the U.S. Economy Chapter 4: The Market Cliff Not Your Father's Down Cycle The Market Cliff Won't Be Just a "Down Cycle" When the Medicine Becomes Poison: Inflation and Rising Interest Rates Will Push Us over the Market Cliff Why Hasn't the Market Cliff Happened Yet? Hitting the Market Cliff The Last Resort: A Stock Market Holiday When Is the Best Time to Get Out of the Stock Market? Chapter 5: Conventional Wisdom Won't Work This Time Introducing Aftershock Wisdom for Investing The Key to Conventional Wisdom: The Future Will Be Just Like the Past The Myth of a Natural Growth Rate Real Productivity Growth Is Slowing Down, Here and Around the World Warren Buffett: Master of Conventional Wisdom Another Example of Conventional Wisdom Put to the Test: Hedge Funds The Key to Aftershock Wisdom Investing: The Future Is Not the Past! If the Future Is Not the Past, How Will It Be Different This Time? Future Inflation Is the Key The Myth of Deflation Is the Last Refuge of the Deniers Not Only Will There Be No Contraction of the Money Supply, We Foresee a Lot More Money Printing Ahead This Debate Is Really Not about Inflation or Deflation, It's All about Protecting the Status Quo with Denial Why Don't More People See This? CW Professionals Have to Be Cheerleaders--But You Don't What if We Are Wrong and the Past 10 Years Were Like the 1970s and Maybe the Next Big Stock Boom Is Right Around the Corner? It's Time to Leave CW Behind and Create an Actively Managed Aftershock Portfolio Part II: Aftershock Investing Chapter 6: Taking Stock of Stocks Facing the Future of Stocks, Mutual Funds, and Index Funds Stocks: A Love Story How Stocks Became the Heart of Most Investment Portfolios In Theory, When You Buy Stocks You Are Buying Future Earnings Conventional Wisdom on Stocks Why Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong Now Normal Valuation Methods Are Being Replaced by Bubble Valuation Stocks Will Fall in Four Stages What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? The Case for Active Management Chapter 7: Bye-Bye Bonds Why Bonds Are Getting Riskier and When to Get Out How Do Bonds Make Money? "Total Return" Is the Key Your Bond's Total Return Is Always Changing Higher Risk, Higher Yields Conventional Wisdom on Bonds: The Safety of the Recent Past Means We Can Count on More Safety Ahead Why Conventional Wisdom on Bonds Is Wrong Now Wrong CW Assumption #1: The Last Few Decades Were Good to Bonds, So the Future Will Be, Too Wrong CW Assumption #2: If All Else Fails, the Federal Government Will Somehow Save Us Why Aren't Bond Investors More Worried? Bonds Will Fall in Four Stages What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? How to Temporarily Own Bonds in an Actively Managed Aftershock Portfolio Mortgage-Backed Securities Short-Term T-Bills and Shorter-Term Government Bonds TIPS The Bottom Line for Bonds Chapter 8: Getting Real about Real Estate Real Estate is Still a Bubble What Really Drives Real Estate Prices? After the Fundamental Drivers of Real Estate Began to Slow, the Bubble Started to Rise Why Conventional Wisdom about Real Estate Is Wrong CW Believes Low Interest Rates are Here to Stay Rising Interest Rates Will Pop the Rest of the Real Estate Bubble How Can the Experts Be So Blind? What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? Your Primary Home--Keep It or Sell It? What if I Am "Underwater" on My Mortgage? Won't Inflation Push Up the Price of My Home? Timing Your Exits Out of Real Estate The High Cost of Doing Nothing Chapter 9: Future Threats to the Safety Nets The Future of Whole Life Insurance and Annuities All Insurance and Annuities Are Essentially Investments in Bonds Conventional Wisdom on Whole Life Insurance and Annuities: Perfectly Safe and Worth Every Penny! All This Provides a Deep Sense of Safety, but that Comfort Comes at a Premium Price Are Any of These Policies a Good Deal? Why Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong: Facing the Real 800-Pound Gorilla in the Room How Will Rising Inflation and Rising Interest Rates Impact My Insurance or Annuity Policies? Your Insurance Company Need Not Go Bankrupt for Your Policy to Be Worth Much Less in the Aftershock What About the State and Federal Governments--Won't They Protect Us? What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? Life Insurance Annuities Long-Term Care Insurance and Disability Insurance Other Types of Insurance that Are Not Investment Dependent: Health, Auto, and Home Insurance When to Exit Your Investment-Dependent Insurance Policies Your Best "Insurance" Is an Actively Managed Aftershock Portfolio Chapter 10: Gold The Once and Future King Gold Was Golden for Centuries Paper Money Used to Be "Backed" by Gold Current Conventional Wisdom on Gold as an Investment: Stay Away! Why Current Conventional Wisdom on Gold Is Wrong Greatly Limited Supply and Sharply Rising Demand Will Drive Huge Price Growth Why This Investment Feels So Uncomfortable Now: Gold Is the Anti-Stock What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? Gold Will Rise in Four Stages How to Buy Gold Owning Gold as Part of a Well-Diversified Actively Managed Aftershock Portfolio How High Will Gold Go? When Will the Future Gold Bubble Pop? Part III: Your Aftershock Game Plan Chapter 11: Aftershock Jobs and Businesses The Rising Bubble Economy Created Huge Job Growth; Now the Falling Bubble Economy Means Fewer Jobs Conventional Wisdom about Future Jobs Is Based on Faith that the Future Will Be Like the Past Why Conventional Wisdom on Jobs Is Wrong Does Government Stimulus Create Jobs? What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? The Falling Bubbles Will Have Varying Impacts on Three Broad Economic Sectors The Capital Goods Sector The Discretionary Spending Sector Some Limited Good News: The Necessities Sector Should I Go to College? Opportunities after the Bubbles Pop: Cashing In on Distressed Assets Dig Your Well Before You Are Thirsty Chapter 12: Aftershock Money Smarts Spending, Savings, and Debt Don't Let Spending Become the Achilles Heel of Your Aftershock Preparations Stop Spending As If There's No Tomorrow Savings: How Much is Enough? The Buying Power of Your Savings Will Evaporate with Inflation Where to Stash Your Cash? Borrowing Money Before, During, and After the Aftershock Saving and Borrowing for College Saving for College Financial Aid Student Loans Summing It Up Chapter 13: Aftershock Retirement and Estate Planning Why Conventional Wisdom on Retirement Is Wrong What's a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? Defined Benefit Pension Plans Defined Contribution Plans (401(k)) IRA Rollovers Federal Employee Retirement Plans Estate Planning: Making the Most of Your Assets for Yourself and Your Heirs Probate Estate Taxes Estate Planning in the Aftershock A Good Retirement Chapter 14: Your Actively Managed Aftershock Portfolio This Economy is Evolving, Your Investments Should Evolve Too The Three Goals of an Actively Managed Aftershock Investment Portfolio Goal #1: Preservation of Capital Goal #2: Minimal Volatility Goal #3: Reasonable Returns Creating Your Actively Managed Aftershock Portfolio Gold High-Dividend Stocks Shorter-Term Treasurys (3-5 years) TIPS Foreign Currencies Commodities ETFs that Short the Stock Market ETFs that Short Bonds Active Portfolio Management: Timing is Everything Remember: Active Aftershock Portfolio Management is Different from Investing during a Normal Recession Better to Move Too Early than Too Late Government Intervention Makes Active Portfolio Management More Difficult Government Intervention, Not Market Forces, Will Have the Biggest Impact on Your Aftershock Portfolio for the Next Few Years Why So Much Interference and Why Don't They Stop? Do It Yourself or Bring in Help? The Bottom Line Epilogue Appendix A Additional Background on Stocks and Bonds Stocks Bonds Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Aftershock Profiting From a Moving Market Profiting from Market Moving Shorting In the Aftershock Appendix B Are the Stock and Gold Markets Manipulated? Potential Market and Economic Manipulation by the Federal Reserve Statistical Manipulation Gold Manipulation Market Manipulation Summary Investment Impact